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It’s the election season. The race for President of the United States is on.
Pick up any newspaper and one is already overdosed with the Republican candidate shucking and jiving to become the presidential nominee, and the early Democratic responses are planting media-fed land mines designed to derail the president’s competition before it is even selected. Politics is a full contact sport and it’s just about now the gloves are coming off; the winner being the one who can take the Rocky Balboa beating in a designer suit.
Personally, while generally interested in politics, I find myself awaiting the results of the earliest primaries to anoint the Republican who will face off with President Obama. I have my own opinion about the candidates from both parties but recognize our system selects the opposing nominee long before I get any say, living in California. In other words, while imperfect, some small subset of Americans will select, in this case, the Republican challenger for the Oval Office. I suppose I could move to Iowa or New Hampshire if I wanted more of a voice, but I’ve come to accept the process, flaws and all, and believe “the system works,” regardless of the party of the incumbent. Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, I have the choice to be an early influencer if I so desire, and if I don’t, well, that’s my choice, too.
The election is a long way away measured in months, speeches, dollars, drama…and wafers.
Yes, for the semiconductor industry the election hopefully occurs in the midst of our industry’s return to the secular growth following the two to three seasonal quarters of “correction” and “inventory management,” code words for “we’re selling less than we expected.”
I’ve read many analyst reports calling for the second-half return of semiconductor growth and in a sustainable way. Phrases like “tail wind” and “global, secular demand” punctuate generally upbeat predictions for our industry’s next big chance to satisfy the consumer and bandwidth product consumption that drives our collective bottom line. In a way, we’re somehow relegated to awaiting that demand. In another way, we are not.
Policy decisions for the semiconductor industry cannot solve the recessional pressures. But they can soften the landing. The Global Semiconductor Alliance (GSA) exists to facilitate growth in the best times and downside management in the worst. It offers programs, working groups, technology advances and best practices to its members to manage their businesses with relevant information and many more resources.
Deciding what resources are available to the industry is the purview of the GSA management and its board. Experienced leaders from around the world team up to steward the organization and add their unique experiences to create a portfolio of advice, wisdom, serious debate and valuable programs. It’s been my great pleasure to be a part of that team for the past five years; a role I have valued personally and to which I have attempted to repay with value of my own.
It’s also election season at the GSA.
Hardly comparable to the race for the White House, scaled down to a tiny $300B industry, the role of the GSA Board member is of great significance to the management of our community of semiconductor-related companies. Unlike the national elections, we candidates are respectful and civil towards each other. But, we value our contributions proportionately as much, and for good reason. There is much at stake as we function in an uncertain global economy with uncertain political outcomes.
I am seeking reelection to the GSA Board. Please help me reduce the uncertainty in the semiconductor industry by voting for a passionate and serious contributor to the GSA, and a supporter of those policies that will help us to weather the outcome of much larger elections, and the challenges that go with them.
[ More about Jack Harding ]
It would be unthinkable to begin this publication without recognition of the disaster the Japanese people are enduring, even as this is written. My friends and colleagues are as safe as they can be, so far; thousands are lost. But it takes no imagination to appreciate the psychological and very real overhang of nuclear toxins changing a society for a decade.
The sad irony of the current situation that plagues America’s, perhaps, closest ally is that the last comparable Japanese experience was delivered to them by the very country that, today, is prepared to do most anything to assist them. We’ve all come a long way and it’s within that notion that we can find hope the world will rally to aid a nation that has contributed enormously to our high standard of living, and our appreciation for tradition in both work and friendship.
We wish our Japanese friends every good fortune to repair their country and move forward, once again.
I am told the two Japanese characters for the word crisis translate to chaos and opportunity. My guess is it is now in the Japanese tradition to move the discussion from crisis to opportunity; from tragedy to productivity. The world is watching an orderly, disciplined Japan rebuild capacities, craft new supply chains, re-qualify new sources for key raw materials… conserve, repair, improve, perfect; Japanese style.
eSilicon, like every other member of the semiconductor industry, has evaluated dependencies, availabilities and alternate plans to accommodate the needs of our customers. As a Value Chain Producer (VCP) we have published nearly daily reports to our customers, identified critical risks to their production, proposed alternative solutions to minimize those risks and, otherwise, tried to keep them informed as we untangle the web of impact from this natural, now commercial, disaster. For one, I believe we will keep the chips flowing, manage some delays and keep the supply side under control.
I do worry about demand. I can easily imagine major Japanese industrial companies deciding to manage their G&A expense by not buying items, such as servers and routers, which in turn slows the demand for those system components…another off year for semis? We’ll see. The good news is that the total demand won’t go away but, more likely, just see some delays.
So, here’s our counsel to our customers: Stage your product at the CMs. That is, carry some extra inventory and have it as available as possible for when the system demand returns to normal (if it dips at all). The worst that could happen is inventory is managed down, then system demand returns and you, our customers, are facing ASIC type lead times to re-engage.
The CMs will go for this as well. They need to protect their revenue stream which means every component needs to be ready and available for the inevitable ramp. Don’t be the long pole in the tent.
The VCP model can help you. We can hold die bank inventory, manage the supply chain with the benefit of the ability to make trade-offs with suppliers over a large portfolio, report progress in Japan, qualify new sources…and on; and we are doing just that.
Japan will bounce back mostly because of the tenacity of the Japanese people. In the meantime, an efficient distribution and usage of its goods and services by the rest of the semiconductor world is our implicit contribution to their need for revenue and repair. I am proud of the contribution all VCPs are making in these challenging times, and to assist Japan in attaining its goals.
Efficient flow of materials and information is what the VCP provides, fundamentally. There has never been a better opportunity for us to serve our customers, suppliers and the Japanese people, than right now. Let’s see this through.
Fifteen years after its debut as a silicon strategy the SOC is finally in full bloom worldwide. In its simplest configuration it consists of a processor, memory, I/O and the RTL crafted by the customer that defines its functionality and application.
For each of the four major elements we have evolved down a different strategic path. For the processor, ARM, MIPS and a couple hangers-on have given the market an IP roadmap so potent that even the discussion of a homemade solution has become as rare as the IP was fifteen years ago.
The I/O spans a relatively broad range from the pedestrian to 17-gig SerDes, the latter constituting such a bold technical challenge that all the serious suppliers can be counted on one hand and even that group is shrinking down to our partner, Avago Technologies, and a few IDMs; it’s hard and is what it is. In other words, no SOC developer has any measurable influence over the technology. The fact that a high-performance SerDes actually does its job over a hundred lanes or more is a borderline miracle. One needs to design around it, not vice versa.
The customers’ RTL has and continues to be the object of most of the EDA munching and crunching; the search for smaller, faster and lower power. Since the processor and I/O have been purchased off-the-shelf, the customer design is the focus of most attempts to optimize.
This brings us to the fourth major category…memory. Much like the other third-party IP on an SOC, memory has been off-the-shelf for all but the largest companies. Simply put, one bought a memory that was “close enough.” And for many designs going forward that solution will continue to be the right one; it works, is silicon tested, is widely used and well documented…why not? However, for some SOCs where the rest of the IC has been optimized to a level of diminishing returns it may be that a customized memory will offer some options to reduce area, power and improve performance.
In fact, for many advanced SOCs that is precisely what we are observing. eSilicon’s customized memory business has caught the eye of some of the most aggressive developers in the world; folks who may be new to the custom memory game or have been doing it for years with internal resources who may be overloaded. In either case, the 40nm and beyond crowd has it figured out…customized memory could be a rich vein of potential optimization.
The SOC development model is here and will only become more important a means to manage cost and time to market. Of the four major SOC elements memory may be the newest and, possibly, the last frontier for optimization. But one thing is for sure, if a developer is going to spend the $50M-$100M needed to bring a 28nm IC to market, he/she will at least understand the trade-offs of customized memory vs. off-the-shelf memory. It’s a knowable trade-off and is one worth considering.
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